“Building on the Secretary General’s Disarmament Agenda”

Thank you Ambassador [H.E. Mr. Aidan Liddle - UK]
Excellencies, Distinguished panelists, Ladies and Gentlemen:

Two minutes to midnight. That is the time on the ‘Doomsday Clock’ since the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands on the clock last year. It is the closest to midnight the clock has been since 1953, when hydrogen bombs escalated the Cold War arms race. The clock is closer to midnight today – that is, nuclear catastrophe – than it has ever been in the lifetime of almost everyone in this room.

That is the somber backdrop to our meeting today. A meeting that could hardly be more timely, and I am grateful to the Strategic Concept for the Removal of Arms and Proliferation (SCRAP) for once again bringing us together, and to the Permanent Mission of the UK for generously hosting us.

A deteriorating international security environment; growing tensions between nuclear rivals; the constant modernization of arsenals - the list of reasons for the heightened risk of nuclear detonation, whether intentionally, by miscalculation or accident, is long.

And these risks are exacerbated by two of the defining trends of the 21st century:
̶ First, the chaotic transition to multipolarity.
̶ And second, the game-changing advances in science and technology.

Today, the nuclear bipolarity of the Cold War has metastasized to include regional nuclear rivalries - the nuclear risks are different in each case; but together, they lead to unprecedented unpredictability.

Meanwhile, rapid technological advances may soon introduce new vulnerabilities into nuclear weapons, making attribution more difficult and escalation and miscalculation more likely.

All of which is why the disarmament agenda launched by Secretary-General Guterres in Geneva last year explicitly reaffirmed that the only sure way to eliminate the risks posed by nuclear weapons is to eliminate the weapons themselves.

That is and must remain our ultimate goal - as it has since 1946.

Which is not to say that there aren’t intermediate steps that we should urgently pursue to enhance stability and increase security for all.

The suite of risk reduction measures that emerged from the Cold War - including hot lines, arms control agreements, and regular dialogue - are all good places to start.

Other measures to build confidence could include further reductions in all types of nuclear weapons and in the role they play in security doctrines, as well as reciprocal commitments on non-use.

And thinking specifically about new technologies,
̶ nuclear-weapon states could introduce more transparency about their offensive cyber and AI capabilities;
̶ they could refrain from testing or deploying destabilizing new capabilities such as hypersonic weapons, and;
̶ they could seek politically binding agreements on, for example, non-interference with nuclear command and control systems.

As the underlying technology is largely created by the private sector, it is imperative that they, too, be brought into policy discussions.

Together with academia, civil society and the military, they are critical constituents of a multi-stakeholder approach that will be central to arriving at shared understandings of risk.
Despite the generally bleak picture, there is in fact positive momentum we can leverage to put in place practical, near-term risk reduction measures:

̶ I am thinking firstly of the review process of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the cornerstone of the non-proliferation and disarmament regime, which already features discussions around threats, risks and opportunities.

̶ And I am thinking about the establishment of the five subsidiary bodies in the Conference of Disarmament last year, which provides a solid basis to achieve meaningful progress, including eventual technical discussions.

However, none of this positive momentum is assured to yield tangible results, which is why I am grateful to everyone in this room - particularly the young students among you - for being part our collective effort, for taking a stand.

Together with the patient and effective advocacy that is the trademark of SCRAP, it is because of engaged, committed advocates like yourselves that I refuse to ever become a pessimist.

For that, I thank you and wish you every success.