Bled Strategic Forum 2016

Prime Minister Cerar,
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Erjavec,
Mr. Grk [Secretary-General of the Bled Strategic Forum],
Mayor Fajfar [Mayor of Bled],
Excellencies, Ladies and gentlemen:

It is a great pleasure for me to be representing the Secretary-General at this important Strategic Forum in Bled. I thank the Government of the Republic of Slovenia for the invitation. At a time when leaders are faced with rapidly evolving challenges, this Forum offers a welcome opportunity to reflect and discuss issues of great importance for Europe and beyond. The Secretary-General regrets that he is unable to participate in person, but he has sent the following message. I quote:

“I am pleased to send greetings to the 2016 Bled Strategic Forum. “Safeguarding the future” is a timely title for this gathering, which addresses many of the challenges that are debated at the United Nations. Some of these topics are global in nature, such as energy and water security, terrorism, regional and human security. In Europe, concerns over economic recovery, violent extremism and large movements of refugees and migrants have recently put a strain on institutions and cooperation arrangements. We have witnessed increasingly divergent views and a return to unilateral responses. However, resolving these challenges is more likely to be achieved through institutional and regional cooperation, which is why events such as the Bled Forum are so important.
The United Nations is committed to finding multilateral, comprehensive solutions to the issues discussed at this Forum. The adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development has opened new opportunities to eradicate poverty, combat inequality, safeguard the health of the planet and secure the well-being of future generations. The Paris Agreement on climate change complements and reinforces these efforts. We must channel our collective energy to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

The United Nations is also committed to leading the search for global frameworks to better respond to the challenges of forced displacement, as well as regular migration. At the Summit on Refugees and Migrants on 19 September 2016, Member States will reaffirm State obligations and offer a set of concrete commitments. Efforts to address the root causes of displacement must also continue.

The recent terrorist attacks in France, Germany and Belgium have left people feeling vulnerable and afraid. As terrorist tactics change, our strategic approaches must also evolve. Military and security responses are important, but we also need to address the drivers of violent extremism. My Plan of Action to Prevent Violent Extremism contains useful recommendations towards this end. The United Nations is ready to step up its assistance to Member States in increasing international cooperation, exchanging information and sharing best practices.

The United Nations is reinforcing its partnerships with regional and sub-regional organizations to coherently and effectively address the many challenges that Member States face. I value your deliberations and wish you a successful Forum.”

That was the end of the Secretary-General’s message.

Allow me now to add some personal reflections.

Excellencies,
Ladies and gentlemen,

The programme of this year’s Bled Strategic Forum includes separate sessions on European security and on human security in a wider sense. As the history of the two world wars has shown, the two are connected. The Balkan wars, which Slovenia has also suffered from, further underlined this interconnection. And today’s conflicts outside Europe demonstrate that human security in Syria, Libya, Yemen and elsewhere has a direct impact on European Security. Unfortunately, this reality is ignored by the isolationist forces that are spreading at a disconcerting speed in Europe and beyond.

Looking at the news over the course of the last year or two, one cannot help but be reminded of the contrast between some defining moments in recent European history, that were key for the continent’s prosperity, and the reality of today. Let me give you a few examples:

In 1948, Winston Churchill famously said, and I quote: "We hope to see a Europe where men of every country will think of being a European as of belonging to their native land […], and, wherever they go in this wide domain […], will truly feel, ‘Here, I am at home.'"

Almost 40 years later, in front of the Brandenburg Gate, US President Ronald Reagan challenged his Soviet counterpart to “tear down this wall”.
And in 1989, then-Austrian Foreign Minister Alois Mock and his Hungarian counterpart Gyula Horn were famously pictured using bolt cutters to carve holes in a barbed wire fence, allowing free movement across their borders.

There are many more examples that stand in contrast to current rhetoric and action. They are not phenomena limited to a few countries. Unfortunately, the numbers of “wall-builders” are increasing across the globe, at a time when “bridge-builders” are needed. The transformations that the world is undergoing are too deep and complex for any one State to adjust to on its own. Without shared responsibility and solidarity, European and human security everywhere are threatened. Safeguarding our common future will require a change in mind-sets.

Let me illustrate this by looking at some of the major trends that challenge the existing structures of global governance. First and foremost is, in my view, technological progress. The digitization of processes across society and the advancement of modern communication tools have far-reaching implications for governance that we have yet to fully grasp. Education and new communication technologies, with 7.3 billion mobile phones world-wide, for example, have emboldened and empowered individuals like never before. Everyone has a voice today. Popular participation in governance and holding governments and organizations at all levels to account are now possible in entirely new ways. But if institutions at the local, national and international level do not harness these new technologies to engage the public, people feel alienated and go their own way. This is especially true for youth and I am glad that they are included in the Young Bled Strategic Forum.

Violent extremism and terrorism are terrifying, but clear manifestations of this alienation. It is no coincidence that the Secretary-General’s Plan of Action to Prevent Violent Extremism contains a substantive paragraph on the internet and social media, stressing that “[w]hile violent extremists have demonstrated some sophistication in their use of old and new media tools, it is equally true that we who reject their message have largely failed to communicate to those who are disillusioned and disenfranchised a vision of the future that captures their imagination and offers the prospect of tangible change.” At the Geneva Conference on Preventing Violent Extremism earlier this year and at the Human Rights Council in Geneva, the importance of a rights-based approach to preventing extremism and regulating the use of modern technologies has been and continues to be emphasized.

An inclusive approach is urgently needed to counter a number of additional trends that undermine the ability of the United Nations and other institutions to safeguard our common future. Iinequality of income and opportunity are on the rise worldwide. The mechanisms of accountability and justice are not keeping up. And a widespread trust deficit towards the ‘authorities’ at all governance levels is growing among the general public.

There are also changes on a more personal level. Our increasing individual mobility impacts identities, alliances and allegiances – and as a result, our priorities. The total number of international migrants has increased, from an estimated 150 million in 2000 to 244 million persons by the last estimate in 2015 and is growing at a rate faster than population growth [according to the IOM, the percentage of migrants in the global population increased from 2.9% in 1990 to 3.3% in 2015 ]. The perceptions of “north” and “south” and “east” and “west” are being realigned as people move and economies develop.

At the same time, we are witnessing an increasingly fragmented governance landscape. The relationship between different institutions are changing at local, regional and global levels. City administrations, for example, are playing an increasingly important role: by 2050, about 75% of the world’s population will be living in cities. Increasingly, key decisions affecting citizens will be taken at the city level. And this shift occurs alongside others such as the increased engagement of the private sector, also represented at the Business Forum here in Bled, and many other actors. The functions and expectations of the State as we have known them are being recalibrated. It does not happen suddenly, but the process is already underway.

Governance systems and structures, which were forged in the aftermath of the Second World War, no longer reflect current realities. As the Secretary-General of the Conference on Disarmament, I am constantly faced with an example of how outdated structures can paralyze progress towards a safer future. It is no secret that the Conference on Disarmament has not negotiated anything for almost 20 years now. Instead, we see militarization in various regions of the world. We see the upgrading of nuclear arsenals. We see looming risks in the absence of regulation of the use of sophisticated autonomous weapons that are being developed at a fast speed. It is urgent to start regulating their use and development soon. These trends clearly call for new approaches and solutions to overcome the deadlock.

Ladies and gentlemen,

The United Nations today has around 120,000 personnel working in 16 peacekeeping operations and is under intense pressure to meet the most extensive demands yet for humanitarian assistance. These realities reflect our common failure to effectively prevent conflict. At the same time, attacks on humanitarian workers make it more and more difficult to deliver life-saving basic humanitarian aid.

A comprehensive, preventive strategy is the only way forward. As mentioned earlier in the Secretary-General’s message, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, in combination with the other crucial multilateral policy frameworks agreed last year, provides us with an opportunity to move from talking about prevention to acting preventively. Goal 16 of the SDGs makes a clear link between development and peaceful, inclusive societies, and the Sustainable Development Goals really are revolutionary in that they acknowledge the inter-connectedness of today’s world. They are our collective blueprint for action guided by a new mind-set and a new working-culture. Horizontal collaboration across issues and silos needs to become the new normal and we need to continue to push for it, both within States, as well as internationally, between different organizations. The United Nations has the ability to facilitate these processes. National governments and all the other stakeholders represented here at the Bled Strategic Forum must act as multipliers to disseminate information about the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development to the wider public. We also need to work together to change the mind-set and working culture in our different organizational settings if we want to be successful in the implementation of these multilateral policy frameworks.

Comprehensive human security requires action that is people-centred, comprehensive, context-specific and preventive. The recent report of the High-level Independent Panel on Peace Operations, the ten-year review of Security Council Resolution 1325 and the review of the United Nations Peacebuilding Architecture also provide valuable platforms for moving towards a more holistic view of security and towards better integration of the tools at hand. A lot of thinking on what is needed to safeguard our common future, has been done. It is now high time to act on the recommendations and goals that we have agreed on globally. They are ambitious. And as history and especially the last 70 years has shown, humanity’s great ambitions can best be achieved when we work together. Let us build bridges rather than walls.

Thank you very much.