48ème Symposium de Saint-Gall - “Humanity’s To-Do List for a Better Future”

Ladies and Gentlemen:

It is a pleasure to be in St. Gallen today – thank you for your kind invitation.

To set the scene for our discussion today, let me sketch out two ways to view the world.

The first version - call it the ‘pessimists’ view - takes its cue from the news headlines: the images of human misery, of violence and chaos, despair and disaster that we encounter every day without respite.

The second version - call it the ‘optimists’ counterpoint - shuts out the noise of the 24h news cycle and looks beyond the day-to-day at the underlying data. What it uncovers is an image of the world not on the brink of collapse, but of steady, cumulative progress.

What I will try to show with this juxtaposition is not that one viewpoint is right and the other wrong, but that they are complimentary. They illuminate different parts of the broad canvas that is our complex and contradictory world.

If we consider both versions together, we can deduce insights, develop responses, and take action. We may, in a word, be able to arrive at something that is alluded to in the title: “humanity’s to-do list for a better future.”

Let me start, then, with version one - the more somber and darker, the pessimist view.

Turn on the news, and there is plenty to make you despair. Conflict and war, poverty and hunger, violence and hatred, bigotry and racism – it can all seem overwhelming.

Then there are the larger, the global, the existential threats we face.

Above and beyond, climate change. For all the threats we face, this is the one that will define the nature of this century more dramatically than all others.

Today, we are spending about one hour together. According to data from the World Bank and the World Wildlife Fund, in this single hour, four million tons of carbon dioxide will be emitted; 1,500 hectares of forests will be cut; and three species will go extinct. During this hour, the pollution that already resides in our atmosphere will trap as much heat as would be released by detonating over 16,600 Hiroshima class atomic bombs. All in just one hour.

The impact of all of this is clear and undeniable, as the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization just confirmed: 17 of the hottest years ever measured have been since 2001; the hottest of all were the last three years.

Millions of people and trillions of assets are at risk from extreme droughts, fires, floods, hurricanes, and rising seas. Climate change is a direct threat in itself and a multiplier of many other threats – from poverty to displacement to conflict.

What compounds the challenge is that all of the above – poverty, displacement, conflict – obstructs action to address climate change. You cannot ask people who are struggling to find enough to eat today to worry about what happens to the planet tomorrow. Worrying about climate change is a luxury many simply cannot afford.

Climate change threatens everyone, everywhere. We don’t have a plan B because there is no planet B. Yet it is those who have contributed the least to this threat that are living with the greatest damage, paying the highest costs, suffering the gravest loss.

This means inequality and climate change are mutually reinforcing. To resolve the latter, we cannot ignore the former.

Neither are being addressed at a fast-enough rate. In fact, we may even be going in reverse.
Last year, 82% of the wealth generated went to the world’s richest 1%, according to a new Oxfam report. The world created new billionaires at a rate of one every two days, nine tenth of them men.
In the past, we were often told that we should tolerate inequality as a way to achieve greater prosperity for all; that the rising tide lifts all boats; that it would all miraculously “trickle down”.

Well, the huge increase among the 1% could have ended global extreme poverty seven times over. But instead the nearly four billion people who make up the poorest half of the world saw no increase in their wealth. Entire regions and countries fail to catch up to the waves of progress, left behind in the Rust Belts of our world.

10% of the world’s population live on less than two dollars a day.

But poverty is by no means exclusive to the developing world. In fact, even in Switzerland - home to four of the world’s ten cities with the highest quality of life - more than half a million people live below the poverty line. Many citizens feel abandoned, leading some to conclude that ‘banks may be too big to fail, but I am too small to matter’.

Exclusion has a price: frustration, alienation, instability.

Inequality, catalyzed by technological disruption that further tilts the distribution from labor to capital, is creating a dangerous seedbed for discontent. It stretches the fabric of society to the breaking point. It undermines trust in the institutions that govern our society, fanning the flames of populist outrage.

In fact, the rise of populism relies on this sense of crisis, of being left behind as faceless forces – imprecisely described as globalization, liberalization, or technological disruption – destroy a ‘glorious past’ that no one ever really experienced, but everyone now claims to remember.
It is true that in many developed economies, the United States and Western Europe in particular, the younger generation no longer expects to be better off than their parents. Having entered the job market in the wake of the Great Recession, Millennials on average earn less, own less, and face higher job insecurity than their baby-boomer parents.

But the question remains: were things really better in the past?

We can approach this question by way of a short hypothetical: If you had to choose one moment in history in which to be born, and you did not know in advance whether you were going to be male or female, which country you were going to be from, or what your status was, which time would you choose?

The answer is at the heart of what we can call the ‘optimist’s view’ of the world.

Why? Because you would have a hard time justifying choosing anything other than the present. Because if you chose today, in most places you would be less likely to be living in poverty; less likely to be illiterate; less likely to confront intolerance and oppression; and less likely to die of diseases or be killed in a war than at any time in human history.

Much of this incredible story of progress happened in the past seven decades.

With few exceptions, poverty has been reduced more in the last 50 years than in the previous 500 years. Data by the IMF shows that the average Chinese person is 10 times richer today than he or she was just five decades ago – and lives for 25 years longer.

90% of all scientists that ever lived are alive today and our scientific understanding of the world is more advanced today than it ever was. To understand the unprecedented pace of progress in our lifetime – just consider that your cellphone has more computing power than the Apollo space capsule that landed the first humans on the Moon in 1969!

Meanwhile, you would have to go back hundreds of years to find a similar period of great power peace. According to data compiled by the Oxford economist Max Roser, the number of people who have died as a result of war, civil war, and, yes, terrorism, is down 50% this decade from the 1990s. It is down 75% from the preceding five decades, the decades of the Cold War, and it is, of course, down 99% from the decade before that, which is World War II.

Progress continues as we speak. I mentioned before how much harm we inflict on our planet in the span of just 60 minutes. But within that hour, it is also true that the number of people who live on less than $2 a day actually goes down by 9,000 every hour; that every hour, 12,500 people gain access to clean drinking water around the world.

So what are we to make of all this? You can paint a plausible picture of the world on the brink of collapse, but you can equally sketch out why we might just be living in the best of times.
I would draw three insights.

First, that the challenges we face are real, existential, and among the most dangerous we ever faced. But nothing – not climate change, not technological disruption, not inequality – is independent of human action. We are the masters of our fate. Our actions matter.

And this means that secondly, we have the ability to resolve them. The point of the incredible stories of progress in our recent past is that we have reasons to be optimistic. Not blind optimism, but hard-earned optimism, rooted in very real progress.

Thirdly, any action must be global and universal. We simply cannot successfully deal with the multiplicity of challenges we face either sequentially or in isolation.

The interrelation of challenges produces intricate causalities: public outrage over social injustices or a lack of trust in institutions can prove just as explosive as more conventional triggers for military conflict. To prevent conflicts, we need a holistic approach focused on root causes.

Geopolitically, the past couple of years are generally narrated as a breakdown of global collaboration. Tensions rose, conflicts deepened, protectionism resurfaced.

In recent months, pundits have even declared the return of the Cold War. A return with a vengeance - but with a difference. For the mechanisms and the safeguards to manage the risks of escalation that existed in the past today seem fragile and porous.

All true. But only part of the story. Amidst the background noise of bellicose rhetoric, the 193 Member States of the United Nations actually agreed on something truly groundbreaking. Some two and a half years ago, they agreed the most ambitious development agenda in human history – the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The 2030 Agenda is the logical, necessary conclusion from the three insights I just outlined – human agency, optimism, and universality.

The 2030 Agenda constitutes universal recognition that the challenges faced by any one of us may swiftly become crises faced by all – carbon emissions know no boundaries, distant conflicts lead to refugee flows and weak healthcare systems in a remote island state can lead to worldwide pandemics.

The 2030 Agenda grasps that these challenges cannot effectively be met by tinkering around the edges of economic, social and political governance, but require a fundamental shift in the dominant development model in all countries.

With 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs for short) and 169 specific targets, we have a detailed global roadmap of what needs to be done. We have, in fact, humanity’s to-do list for a better future.

The Goals address everything from ending poverty (Goal 1) and achieving gender equality (Goal 5) to decent work and equitable economic growth (Goal 8) to the rule of law (Goal 16).

They are anchored on three fundamental principles:

One, they are indivisible and universal.
Two, they “leave no one behind”.
Three, they are everyone’s responsibility.

Achieving the goals would create a world that is comprehensively sustainable: socially fair; environmentally secure; economically prosperous; inclusive; and more predictable.

So far, so good. But as we all know, writing to-do lists is one thing, actually ‘doing’ them is another thing entirely. So the question is: How are we doing in our quest to make the 2030 Agenda a reality?
The answer is not clear-cut.

On the one hand, the ways in which the Agenda has become a common roadmap, the ways in which it has given new structure and direction to our work across disciplines and geographies has been nothing short of incredible.

At the beginning of the year, I attended the World Economic Forum in Davos. In previous years, you sometimes had political officials in one corner and industry executives in the other, exchanging pleasantries but really running on separate agendas. This time, however, the SDGs built a linguistic bridge, a shared language for all of us to really come together to meaningfully explore how to solve the challenges that affect us all.

There is, in short, a clear change of mindset, a new spirit of collaboration and partnership that simply wasn’t there in the pre-2030 Agenda era.

On the other hand, this spirit of partnership still needs to embed itself more firmly in the structures and instruments we have to implement policy.

I am talking here also about the United Nations. The geopolitical landscape that gave rise to the UN has shifted in ways we are only beginning to understand. Just consider the distribution of power between then and now.

What used to be a bipolar world, with controlled confrontation between two superpowers, has metamorphosed into something much more diffuse – internationally, mid-level powers act increasingly autonomously from the big powers; domestically, the state’s monopoly of power is challenged by non-state actors; cyberspace is mostly privately owned and operated by huge corporations; and even within governments, mayors can at times be as influential in making policy as prime ministers or presidents.

In this polycentric system, the United Nations – still firmly built around the notion of nation-state sovereignty – has to become more nimble and open to retain its relevance.

This is not to say that the messy power relations of 21st century international politics does not engender tremendous opportunities - particularly if approached through the lens of the 2030 Agenda.

If “you win-I lose” calculations dominated Cold War-era international relations, the SDGs are the paradigm shift necessary for the new polycentric system that does away with zero-sum games. The new logic is simple and powerful: if the threats are existential, if power is dispersed and challenges are global and interlinked, then we really are all in this together, and no one wins unless everyone wins.

Geneva, our European headquarters, is at the vanguard of that change. Geneva’s unique ecosystem fuels collaboration, innovation and the sharing of knowledge. The shores of Lake Geneva are home to over 100 international organizations, some 400 non-governmental organizations, representatives of 179 states, a vibrant private sector and world-class academic institutions. This proximity enables partnerships, whose impacts are felt across the world.

It has never been easier to get involved in our collective efforts to make the world a better place. It’s also never been more necessary. This really is no time for bystanders.

Rights are universal; responsibility tracks power. This means that as individuals, small everyday actions can be meaningful; as businesses, the bar is higher.

I am mentioning business here for two reasons:

First, because we are in St. Gallen after all, and among us are very likely tomorrow’s CEOs, managers, and entrepreneurs.

And secondly, I am mentioning business because the private sector will be perhaps the most critical actor in deciding what will prevail - the pessimist’s fears or the optimist’s dreams.
This is no hyperbole. The outcome of virtually every challenge we face will in part be decided by actions of private companies.

Take inequality and the instability it engenders: If a majority of companies follow the flawed premise that quarterly profit margins and shareholder value trump their responsibility to the society in which they operate, the social compact that holds society together will break.

Take resources and the ways in which they are deployed: According to some estimates, to actually achieve the Goals set by the 2030 Agenda, we need an additional USD 2.4 trillion in investments per year. Investments in green infrastructure, in energy, in agriculture, in health, and in education.
Public funding cannot close this gap. Not even close.

Meanwhile, trillions of private capital remain locked up in bonds earning low or marginal returns. Deep and liquid capital markets remain concentrated around New York, London and Hong Kong - while entrepreneurs in the developing world struggle to find funding to grow their businesses.
We need businesses of all sizes – from start-up to corporate – to innovate market-based solutions that drive inclusion; to do business in a way that works for the global good as much as for the bottom line.

If irresponsible business can do tremendous harm, responsible business also has the power to deliver enormous progress.

In fact, a business approach is often more sustainable and scalable than a charity. By working with African farmers to improve coffee production, companies [like Starbucks or Nestle] can lift more people out of poverty than any number of aid efforts.

Among the biggest corporations, there is at least more of the right kind of talk. Laurence Fink, the chief executive of the investment firm BlackRock and one of the biggest investors in the world, made waves recently with an implicit threat to punish small-minded companies that - and I quote - “only deliver financial performance” without “a positive contribution to society.”

Compare that with the statement of the consequential economist Milton Friedman, who three decades ago wrote that “there is one and only one social responsibility of business” and that is “to increase its profits.”

What’s driving the rethink is not necessarily a tingling of the tycoon conscience; it’s self-interest.
It’s borne out of the recognition that sustainability is not only the right thing to do; it’s the smart thing to do.

The data tells a clear-cut story. Businesses that put sustainability at the core of what they do outperform those that don’t:

̶ They outperform because sustainability gives them the compass and perspective to take the long-term view.
̶ They outperform because sustainability connects them to the Zeitgeist.
̶ They outperform because – if they are innovative enough to go sustainable – they are nimble enough to navigate volatile, competitive markets.

And here is what I find most encouraging about the change: it’s driven by the next generation; it’s driven by you.

Doing good is no longer a matter of writing a few checks at the end of the year, as it was for my generation; for many young people, it’s an ethos that governs where you work, shop and invest.
Some of it may be shallow, some of it is deep, but it is certainly authentic. And that gives me hope.
For the years and decades to come will test our civilization like no other. You are the first generation that can end extreme poverty and the absolute last generation that can curb climate change. It is a heavy responsibility.

The future will depend on the commitment, the ingenuity, the curiosity, the abilities, the sense of common destiny and the empowerment of every person on the planet. It will depend on you. It will depend, very crucially, on your determination and capacity for transformation and reform.

We face a stark choice: If we cling to an economic and social model that drives exclusion and environmental destruction, people die, opportunities are missed, the seeds of division and future conflicts are sown and the full force of climate change becomes ever more likely.

Or we create another world - where open trade is more collaborative; where financial systems are safer and more supportive of broad-based growth; where gains are distributed fairly; where the digital revolution benefits not just the fortunate few, but lifts the fate of the many; and where companies care about all their stakeholders, not just their shareholders.

We have the to-do list. It’s up to us to get it done.

Thank you.